NOAA releases the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook: What to expect

ARLINGTON, Va. (7News) — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its official outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. The announcement came from a news conference Thursday, May 23, 2024.

NOAA predicts the 2024 season to be above-normal.

Forecasters anticipate an 85% chance for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. There is a 10% chance the season will be near-normal and a 5% chance the season will be below-normal.

Chief Meteorologist Veronica Johnson spoke with Cody Fritz, Storm Surge Specialist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Here's an early look at what to expect for the upcoming season.

Cone of Uncertainty Improvements

Whenever a tropical system becomes a tropical storm, it is then given a name and a cone of uncertainty. Cones of uncertainty have been around since 2002 and have been used to visually show the likely track of the center of a tropical cyclone only.

While helpful in determining locations that need to prepare for landfall, it's been criticized for downplaying all the hazards associated with a hurricane.

"Instead of just showing the track and the hurricane watch and warnings along the immediate coast for the United States, more specifically, we're going to highlight the inland hurricane wind watches and warnings as well to kind of emphasize more so the hazards and how they're not just at the coastline, but they also extend inland and they also extend beyond where the actual storm tracks."

The primary goal of the update is to get people to focus more on the impacts (many of which extend far inland and not just on the coast), and not just on the path of the cone.

Inland Watches and Warnings

The most intense impacts from a landfalling hurricane are right at the coast. However, inland impacts can also be just as dangerous.

It's for this reason that the cone of uncertainty will now also include the watches and warnings associated with the storm as well.

"Now the cone graphic will only highlight those wind watches and warnings inland. There will be other graphics that highlight the extreme rainfall or the extreme storm surge like watches and warnings associated with those hazards," said Fritz.

Early Prediction

The NOAA outlook on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is strictly only an outlook on the number of storms to expect. It does not include the strength, size, or prediction of landfalling systems.

It's important to remember to stay weather aware during hurricane season since it only takes one landfalling hurricane to cause catastrophic damage.

This summer, we will be transitioning out of an El Nino and into a La Nina, which has climatologically promoted the enhancement of hurricanes in the Atlantic.

According to Fritz, "The other factor that will play a lot of significance in not just the generation of tropical cyclones, but the intensity of tropical cyclones is how warm the ocean has been in the Atlantic".

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